Thursday, October 04, 2012



Can the USA expect big riots in the next few years?

Major turbulence seems to come to the USA about every 50 years.

In 1870, there was major unrest in America.

Around 1920, race riots, strikes and anti-Communist feeling led many Americans to think that revolution was imminent.

Around 1970, violent student demonstrations, political assassinations, riots and terrorism led many Americans to think that revolution was coming.

In 2012, some people think that revolution is on its way, with one faction of the rich elite going to war with another faction of the rich elite.

Website for this image

Peter Turchin studies 'population dynamics' at the University of Connecticut.

He has studied historical records and reckons that a new wave of trouble is on its way and will peak around 2020.

Human cycles: History as science 

Peter Turchin

Turchin looked at such factors as inequality, corruption and 'political cooperation'.

Turchin refers to long term cycles; and short term cycles lasting 50 years.

According to Turchin, these two interacting cycles fit patterns found in Europe and Asia from the fifth century BC onwards.

Turchin reckons that at some point in these cycles we get 'elites' who are just too numerous.

The elites start fighting each other for power.

There is political instability and then some kind of collapse, before the cycle begins again.

Human cycles: History as science 

Has Turchin missed something out?

Let's look at Turchin's analysis of the fall of Mubarak in Egypt.

Turchin points out that, under Mubarak:

1. The Egyptian economy was growing and poverty levels were among the lowest in the developing world.

2. In the 10 years leading up to 'the revolution', the number of graduates went up 400%.

Cairo Smile
Cairo under Mubarak, by gamal_inphotos

So, the Egyptian 'elite' had become rather large, and some of them felt they were not getting their fair share of the loot.

What Turchin leaves out is the involvement of the CIA and its friends in organising the Arab Spring.

Turchin's Historical theory is called Cliodynamics.

One of the fans of Cliodynamics is Jack Goldstone, a member of the Political Instability Task Force, which is funded by the CIA.

Goldstone does warn that cliodynamics is useful only for looking at broad trends.

aferrismoon points out that the Berlin Wall came down on 9 11 - 9 November 1989.

Harvey Whitehouse, an anthropologist at the University of Oxford, argues that for for there to be a revolution in a country, such as Libya, people must identify very strongly with a political group (such as al Qaeda).

Whitehouse has studied the revolutionary brigades in Misrata, in Libya.

Has Whitehouse missed something out?

Whitehouse fails to mention the involvement of the CIA and its friends in organising the revolt against Gadaffi in Libya.



CanSpeccy said...

Riots around the world have been closely linked with food prices. The US grows enough corn to feed 800 million people, but much of that corn is now converted to motor fuel, which has doubled corn prices over the last couple of years. The current N. American drought may drive prices even higher.

In America, however, food stamps protect most people from outright starvation. So if food riots occur they are less likely in the US or in Europe's welfare states than in the rest of the world.

Anonymous said...

When the U.S. and Europe's economies collapse as they soon will, that will be the end of all welfare programs. Riots are already happening in Europe and they are coming to the US soon. You can bet the farm on that! Why do you think Homeland Security is stocking up on ammo??? What about the plan to fill our skies with thousands of drones? As well as everything else they are doing to create a police state.

felix said...

Whitehouse's Canadian collaborator Brian McQuinn is seen in this recent video at the spooky LSE, speaking on rebel groups in Libya - "how to do it in Syria".
(from about 38mins)

Indeed, something is missing...

Site Meter