Tuesday, February 07, 2006

A war against Iran, as indicated by war games.

Qoutes from 'Iran and the jaws of a trap' by Paul Levian, writing in Asia Times online http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HB03Ak02.html

The somewhat standard scenario for this war - as indicated by Chinese and Russian war games - has the following features:

An initial Israeli air attack against some Iranian nuclear targets, command and control targets and Shahab missile sites.

Iran retaliates with its remaining missiles, tries to close the Gulf, attacks US naval assets and American and British forces in Iraq.

If Iranian missiles have chemical warheads (in fact or presumed), the US will immediately use nuclear weapons to destroy the Iranian military and industrial infrastructure.

If not, an air campaign of up to two weeks will prepare the ground campaign for the occupation of the Iranian oil and gas fields.

Mass mobilization in Iraq against US-British forces will be at most a nuisance - easily suppressed by the ruthless employment of massive firepower.

And Israel will use the opportunity to deal with Syria and South Lebanon, and possibly with its Palestinian problem.

The character of this war will be completely different from the Iraq war. No show-casing of democracy, no "nation-building", no journalists, no Red Cross - but the kind of war the United States would have fought in North Vietnam if it had not had to reckon with the Soviet Union and China.

Paul Levian is a former German intelligence officer.


1 comment:

Team India said...

Agreed military action is round the corner. Now its just a matter of shifting public opinion, more so in europe than the US.

The recent riots over the cartoons has surely helped shift some opinion

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