"First, the Turkish military has no interest in embracing the risks that come with involvement in Iraq's sectarian strife. A full-scale invasion might well provoke Iraq's own Kurdish guerrillas into a prolonged and bloody battle with Turkish forces that can only undermine support for Erdogan's government at home and abroad.
"Second, Turkey's government hopes to keep the country's bid to join the European Union moving forward. An invasion of Iraq would bring that process to a grinding halt. EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana has made plain that Europe strongly opposes any large-scale Turkish military operation in Iraq.
"Third, Turkey is well aware that an all-out attack inside Iraq is exactly what Turkey's Kurdish separatists want. What better way to damage Turkey than to pull its military into conflict with Iraq, the US and the EU? Erdogan has no intention of being drawn into that trap. Comment is free: Why Turkey's army will stay home