Friday, May 04, 2007

Have the Scottish elections been rigged?

The map shows Dumfries and Galloway in dark blue.

"'This is Scotland's Florida on a vast scale.'... More than 100,000 votes, 10% of the poll, were being classified as spoiled." The screw up

"The new US consul in Scotland, questioned the effect of separation on American energy firms and criticised the SNP’s anti-Nato policy." US consul questions wisdom of Scottish independence

Official result for the Scottish Parliament - 129 out of 129 seats declared (5 May 2007)
SNP: 47 (+20)
Labour: 46 (-4)
Conservative: 17 (-1)
Lib Dems: 16 (-1)

The YouGov poll (2 May 2007) put the SNP six points ahead in the constituency vote and five points ahead in the regional vote and predicted the SNP would end up with six more seats than Labour in the Scottish Parliament.

The SNP recorded swings against Labour in all of the first few seats to declare, from 4.4% in Glasgow Anniesland to a massive 15% in Airdrie and Shotts. But, some funny things then began to happen in the most marginal seats.

Have the Scottish elections been rigged?

1. There was something fishy in the Scottish Highlands and Islands regional list ballot, which gave Labour 4 members of parliament and the SNP none. The SNP demanded a recount. The final result saw Labour get three, the Tories two and the SNP two. Grandfather was SNP election hero

2. Is there something fishy about the result in Cumbernauld & Kilsyth, a top target seat for the SNP?

May 2007 election result

Labour 12,672 votes +6.4% (an increase since the last election)

SNP 10,593 votes +0.8%

Liberal Democrat 1,670 votes +1.1%

Conservative 1,447 votes +1.5%

3. Is there something fishy about the Scottish Constituency of Galloway and Upper Nithsdale, a top target seat for the SNP.

May 2007 election result:

Conservative 13,387 votes +6.0%

SNP 10,054 votes -4.7%

Labour 4,935 votes +1.8%

The very last poll in Scotland, before the 3 May 2007 election, showed the SNP well in the lead in Scotland as a whole. Analysis: SNP holds its nerve

In Scotland, the Conservative's share of the vote had dropped from 17% (2003 election) to 13% according to the 2 May 2007 YouGov poll.

The Conservatives are not wildly popular in Scotland. Tory Deputy Presiding Officer Murray Tosh failed to win his party's top target of Dumfries, which remained with Labour's Elaine Murray. (Chaos at the counts mars a night of success for the SNP )

"TORY MSPs are clueless no-hopers - according to Scotland's only Conservative MP. Shadow Scots secretary David Mundell delivered the damning verdict in a memo to leader David Cameron." The Daily Record - NEWS - SCOTS TORIES ARE CLUELESS

In Galloway and Upper Nithsdale (Dumfries and Galloway area in Southern Scotland) there have, reportedly, been a fair number of SNP posters and an almost total absence of Conservative or Labour posters.

The Regional Voting result in Scotland South was SNP five members elected, Conservatives one elected, Liberal Democrats one elected. SNP 51.52% (+ 33.15%, Conservatives 10.44% (-13.8) , Labour 8.89% (-21.1%), Liberal Democrats 9.37%)

In the Council Elections in Dumfries and Galloway, the leader of the Labour group failed to be elected and the leader of the Conservative group failed to be elected. The SNP doubled their representation.

Was there postal vote fraud in the parliamentary election, with Labour making sure that the Conservatives would win Galloway and Upper Nithsdale, in order to keep out the SNP?

Why did some people not get their postal votes in time?

"Some 1,600 voters in Dumfries and Galloway complained they are still waiting for ballots to arrive. The council reassured Scots they should soon arrive, adding forms were posted last Friday." 'Small number' of Scots could lose their vote

In Birmingham, 22,500 postal votes may have been faked in 2004. Abuse fears over postal voting

"Scotland on Sunday has spoken to members of the Asian community in Glasgow who claim that fraud there is rife. Muhammad Shoaib, who left the Labour party to become an independent candidate last year, claimed there was 'a deliberate campaign' to abuse the postal vote system."Police alert on election fraud

What about the Dumfries and Galloway police? They are the people who investigated the Lockerbie Bomb. Scotsman.com News - Police chief- Lockerbie evidence was faked

4. DESPITE a massive 15.2% swing to the SNP, Labour's Karen Whitefield has held on to the constituency of Airdrie and Shotts. Labour's majority in Airdrie and Shotts is 1,448. The number of rejected ballot papers is 1,506. Labour hold Airdrie and Shotts despite huge swing to SNP

5. In Aberdeen Central, Labour's Lewis Macdonald held onto his seat ahead of the SNP's Karen Shirron. Labour's majority in Aberdeen Central is 382 votes - The number of rejected ballot papers is 796 votes. Aberdeen votes re-count under way

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6. Which other results look suspicious?

Almost no high profile Labour figures have lost their seats.

The Labour vote is suspiciously high in certain key marginals.

In Linlithgow, Labour got 12,715 votes + 1.1%.
The SNP got 11,565 votes + 4.4%.

The number of rejected votes was bigger than the successful candidate's winning margin.

This happened in about 1 in 6 constituencies.

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7. "The voting process has been suspended in several locations due to problems with electronic counting. There have also been an unprecented number of spoilt ballot papers in all areas.

"In Airdrie and Shotts the number of spoilt ballots was 1,536 - 90 higher than the majority of Labour's Karen Whitefield. There were 2,035 spoilt papers in Glasgow Shettleston, 1,850 in Glasgow Baillieston and 1,736 in the city's Anniesland constituency. " - Early results show swing to SNP

There have been problems with a new automated counting system at a number of counts. - Elections marred by vote problems

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8. "An absolute shambles, postal votes, different methods of voting, machines not working. Disgusted." - Graham, Dundee. Elections marred by vote problems

"What do you think about the number of rejected papers? - It's obscene and a sad reflection on the people who 'organised' it. Is Scotland's electoral system now in disrepute? - Yes, I will not trust the result." - J, Dundee Elections marred by vote problems

"Annul the results and do it again. This is a farce and is in no way representative of the nations wishes." - Keiron, Central Fife Elections marred by vote problems

9. "As many as 22,500 postal voters have dropped off the voting register in Birmingham in the wake of police investigations into allegations of fraud in the city three years ago. The massive drop in voters came after officers probed claims that postal votes were being stolen or filled in by party workers in the city in 2004. In some cases, people turned up to vote only to be told that a postal vote in their name had already been submitted." Abuse fears over postal voting

10. The YouGov survey - completed on 2 May 2007 - shows:

Constituency vote

SNP 37%
Labour 31%

Regional vote

SNP 32%
Labour 27%

Calculations by Prof John Curtice of Strathclyde University based on YouGov's findings suggest:
SNP 45 seats
Labour 39 seats

Weber Shandwick's Poll of Polls suggested the SNP would have 48 seats (Daily Telegraph 3 May 2007).

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Alex Salmond had a 2,062 majority over the Lib Dem Nora Radcliffe in the Gordon seat while Nicola Sturgeon won Glasgow Govan from Labour. The Nationalists also took Dundee West, Central Fife, Stirling and Kilmarnock and Loudoun from Labour. The SNP also took four of the seven regional list places in Glasgow. Salmond leads charge as SNP gain

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