Tuesday, April 12, 2005

UK - Conservatives unlikely to win?

Imagine this scenario:

LABOUR 34% of the vote - 300 seats
CONSERVATIVES 39% of the vote - 271 seats
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 22% - 46 seats

RESULT Hung Parliament ? Labour short by 23 seats

This scenario does not look very likely at present.

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According to recent polls:

Labour's share of the vote has fallen from 45% in 2001 to 37% now.
The Conservative share has fallen from 39% to 35%.
The Liberal Democrat share of the vote is up, but not dramatically.

In the most marginal seats the Conservative vote is down from 45% in 2001 to 43% now.

The Conservatives might win only a handful of Labour seats.

The Liberal Democrats might gain a handful of Labour seats and the SNP gain 1 Labour seat.
The Liberal Democrats may gain a number of seats from the Conservatives.

A Conservative victory does not look too likely unless there is a big increase in the Conservative vote.

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Some of the bookies are suggesting:

Labour will get around 352 seats
Conservatives 203 seats
Liberal Democrats 67 seats
SNP 5-6 seats

PC 4.5-5: DUP 7.7-8.2: SF 4.3-4.8: UUP 2.8 - 3.3: SDLP 1.8 -2.3


http://politicalbetting.com/index.php
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives2004/story/0,15018,1319612,00.html
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2004/04/24/a-hung-parliament-or-labour-majority-of-114-which-pollster-do-you-believe/

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